Introduction
Predicting how the stock market will perform is one of the most difficult things to do. There are so many factors involved in the prediction – physical factors vs. psychological, rational and irrational behavior, etc. All these aspects combine to make share prices volatile and very difficult to predict with a high degree of accuracy.
Problem Statement
Fundamental Analysis involves analyzing the company’s future profitability on the basis of its current business environment and financial performance.
Technical Analysis, on the other hand, includes reading the charts and using statistical figures to identify the trends in the stock market.
Machine learning has significant applications in the stock price prediction. In this machine learning project, we will be talking about predicting the returns on stocks. This is a very complex task and has uncertainties. We will develop this project on LSTM neural network
we will learn how to predict stock price using the LSTM neural network.
Datasets
To build the stock price prediction model, we will use the NSE TATA GLOBAL dataset. This is a dataset of Tata Beverages from Tata Global Beverages Limited, National Stock Exchange of India: Tata Global Dataset
1. Imports:
import pandas as pd
import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
%matplotlib inline
from matplotlib.pylab import rcParams
rcParams['figure.figsize']=20,10
from keras.models import Sequential
from keras.layers import LSTM,Dropout,Dense
from sklearn.preprocessing import MinMaxScaler
2. Read the dataset:
df=pd.read_csv("NSE-TATA.csv")
df.head()
3. Analyze the closing prices from dataframe:
df["Date"]=pd.to_datetime(df.Date,format="%Y-%m-%d")
df.index=df['Date']
plt.figure(figsize=(16,8))
plt.plot(df["Close"],label='Close Price history')
4. Sort the dataset on date time and filter “Date” and “Close” columns:
data=df.sort_index(ascending=True,axis=0)
new_dataset=pd.DataFrame(index=range(0,len(df)),columns=['Date','Close'])
for i in range(0,len(data)):
new_dataset["Date"][i]=data['Date'][i]
new_dataset["Close"][i]=data["Close"][i]
5. Normalize the new filtered dataset:
scaler=MinMaxScaler(feature_range=(0,1))
final_dataset=new_dataset.values
train_data=final_dataset[0:987,:]
valid_data=final_dataset[987:,:]
new_dataset.index=new_dataset.Date
new_dataset.drop("Date",axis=1,inplace=True)
scaler=MinMaxScaler(feature_range=(0,1))
scaled_data=scaler.fit_transform(final_dataset)
x_train_data,y_train_data=[],[]
for i in range(60,len(train_data)):
x_train_data.append(scaled_data[i-60:i,0])
y_train_data.append(scaled_data[i,0])
x_train_data,y_train_data=np.array(x_train_data),np.array(y_train_data)
x_train_data=np.reshape(x_train_data,(x_train_data.shape[0],x_train_data.shape[1],1))
6. Build and train the LSTM model:
lstm_model=Sequential()
lstm_model.add(LSTM(units=50,return_sequences=True,input_shape=(x_train_data.shape[1],1)))
lstm_model.add(LSTM(units=50))
lstm_model.add(Dense(1))
inputs_data=new_dataset[len(new_dataset)-len(valid_data)-60:].values
inputs_data=inputs_data.reshape(-1,1)
inputs_data=scaler.transform(inputs_data)
lstm_model.compile(loss='mean_squared_error',optimizer='adam')
lstm_model.fit(x_train_data,y_train_data,epochs=1,batch_size=1,verbose=2)
7. Take a sample of a dataset to make stock price predictions using the LSTM model:
X_test=[]
for i in range(60,inputs_data.shape[0]):
X_test.append(inputs_data[i-60:i,0])
X_test=np.array(X_test)
X_test=np.reshape(X_test,(X_test.shape[0],X_test.shape[1],1))
predicted_closing_price=lstm_model.predict(X_test)
predicted_closing_price=scaler.inverse_transform(predicted_closing_price)
8. Save the LSTM model:
lstm_model.save("saved_model.h5")
9. Visualize the predicted stock costs with actual stock costs:
train_data=new_dataset[:987]
valid_data=new_dataset[987:]
valid_data['Predictions']=predicted_closing_price
plt.plot(train_data["Close"])
plt.plot(valid_data[['Close',"Predictions"]])
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